Incident Pattern Simulator Beta Release

Running Simulation...

Mean Overlap

5th–95th Range

99th Percentile

Max Peak (most extreme observed)

Judicial commentary based on:

ILLUSTRATIVE FRAMING

⚖️ Prosecution's Presentation

ILLUSTRATIVE FRAMING

🛡️ Defence's Presentation

Expected vs. Observed Overlap

Expected (Given Hours)

—

Simulated Mean

—

Ratio (Obs/Exp)

—

When ratio ≈ 1.0, observed overlaps match statistical expectation given workload.

Ward Mean Fill —

Average nurse workload

Highest Other Nurse —

Maximum non-suspect

Suspect Workload —

Nurse 38's exposure

P(Innocent Match) (?)—95% CI: —

📊 Multiple Comparisons Problem

—

In — of simulations, at least one other nurse matched or exceeded the suspect's overlap count.

The "Prosecutor's Gap": Note the distance between the 99th percentile (amber) and the max peak (red). Prosecutors may seize upon this outlier—which occurs naturally in large datasets—and present it as impossible coincidence. But someone will always be the maximum; the question is whether that maximum is unusual given their exposure.

Incident Pattern Simulator
Beta Release

Analysis Mode (?)

Advanced Configuration

Ward Staffing Profile (?)

Suspect Nurse Exposure (?)

Selection Effect Parameters (?)

Simulation Parameters (?)

Incident Pattern SimulatorBeta Release